Ireland will require more than 300 new aeroplanes worth $22 billion over the next 20 years, according to Boeing’s annual forecast for the commercial aeroplane market.
Single-aisle aeroplanes like the Boeing 737 will account for 90 percent of all commercial jetliners delivered to the country’s airlines over the next 20 years. Eight percent will be twin-aisle aeroplanes like the Boeing 7E7, and two percent will be smaller regional jets.
As in Ireland, the market for aeroplanes in all of Europe over the next 20 years is significant.
Boeing projects that European airlines, as a group, will need 7,000 aeroplanes worth about $530 billion during those 20 years. Of those, 66 percent will be single-aisle aeroplanes, while twin-aisle aeroplanes will account for 18 percent of all jetliners sold. Fourteen percent will be regional jets, and two percent will be 747 size or larger.
“The percentage of smaller aeroplanes flown in Europe will increase as airlines meet public demand for more direct routes,” said Drew Magill, director of Market Analysis for Boeing Commercial Aeroplanes. Magill noted that since 1990, the number of non-stop flights in Europe has grown at an average rate of about five- percent and the average aeroplane size has fallen.
Air traffic within Europe is expected to grow 4.1 percent per year over the next 20 years. Traffic on transatlantic routes between Europe and North America is projected to increase 4.9 percent annually.
“The whole European region will be an incredibly promising market over the next 20 years,” Magill noted. “We see the rate of growth for passenger traffic outpacing overall economic growth in the region.”
This growth trend is already under way. Air traffic in Europe is 6.5 percent higher than in 2000 and 12 percent higher than it was the same time a year ago.
“As we look to the future, we expect competitive intensity to continue to build in the European airline industry,” said Magill. “Further consolidation of the global network carriers is likely as airlines merge or carve out niches for themselves as regional specialists. Leisure carriers will adapt with innovative offerings outside of the traditional holiday packages. Low-cost carriers, which have grown dramatically in the last few years, are likely to double their market share in the next 10 years.”
Worldwide, Boeing estimates the fleet will require 25,000 new jets by 2023 worth about $2 trillion.
The complete forecast, entitled the Boeing Current Market Outlook, is available on the Boeing website.