UK growth will be flat this year with a modest pick-up throughout 2013, according to the CBI’s latest quarterly economic forecast. The organisation anticipates a slight improvement in pace in 2014, however it said that external risks to the outlook are likely to continue.
According to the forecast, GDP growth will be zero per cent in 2012, slightly higher than its previous forecast of -0.3 per cent. This reflects the better-than-expected quarterly rare of growth in the third quarter (+1.0 per cent).
However, without the impact of one-off distortions in the fourth quarter, quarter-on-quarter growth is expected to be only marginally positive (+0.2 per cent).
In 2013, the CBI forecasts growth of up to +1.4 per cent, marginally up from +1.2 per cent in August, reflecting improved growth figures in the third quarter.
Quarter-on-quarter growth is expected to be modest, however, at around 0.3–0.4 per cent.
The CBI added that the risks around the outlook remain on the downside, with the continuing eurozone crisis, concern over the impact of inflation, and uncertainty on the international front.
The CBI forecasts GDP growth of up to 2.0 per cent in 2014.