Chinese market ready for take off

Airbus forecasts that the Chinese mainland will need more than 3,000 passenger aircraft and freighters from 2006 to 2025. Airbus’ estimated figure includes 2,050 single aisle aircraft, nearly 600 small twin-aisle aircraft, over 200 intermediate twin-aisle aircraft and 180 very large aircraft.

Some 2,650 passenger aircraft will be required on the Chinese mainland with a total value of $289bn. The Chinese mainland passenger fleet will triple in the next 20 years, from 760 at the end of 2005, to 2,700 in 2025.

Freighter traffic in China is expected to grow six-fold and will need close to 400 freighter aircraft over the next 20 years. China’s freighter traffic demand will remain at a high level with an average domestic market growth rate of 10.9 per cent p.a. and an average international market growth rate of 8.9 per cent p.a.

‘In terms of in-service aircraft, Airbus’ market share on the Chinese mainland has already increased from seven per cent in 1995 to the current 35 per cent. Our aim is to reach 50 per cent in 2011,’ said John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating Officer Customers. ‘In next 20 years, the greatest demand for passenger aircraft will come from the Chinese mainland just after the United States,’ he added.

The drivers of China’s dynamic air transport growth include strong economic growth (eight per cent for the next 10 years); progressive market liberalisation in China; and fast growth in household spending on transport.

The concentration of the population, the very dynamic and large Chinese cities, combined with the vast potential outbound tourism will translate in a substantial requirement for large aircraft such as the A380, especially, in the next decade. More than 110 A380 passenger aircraft will be required to serve not only long haul international routes but also intra-Asia and domestic China trunk routes.

Meanwhile, Airbus anticipates the opening of more than 110 new long haul routes to and from China to be served by small and intermediate twin-aisle aircraft such as the A350.

The domestic Chinese mainland traffic will continue to grow at a fast pace, with an anticipated 11.3 per cent increase per year, requiring some 1,200 single aisle aircraft over the next 10 years and as many as 1,900 over the next 20 years.