Peter Rolton, chairman of engineering consultancy Rolton Group, explores the evolving electric vehicle landscape and the challenges that lie on the road ahead.
It’s no secret that electric vehicles are set to be the next game changer in the automotive sector. EVs are now an everyday reality on our roads, and innovations in this fast-moving sector are constantly hitting the headlines; take for example charging provider PODPoint’s latest £9m investment programme, or the announcements of all-electric hypercars at the Geneva Motor Show.
The Dendrobium all-electric hypercar
But electric vehicles are more than just the latest automotive evolution. Their rapid emergence from concept into the world of everyday transport has far-reaching implications, particularly in the areas of environmental impact and changes in our energy production and consumption.
Funding for research into electric vehicles was given a boost in the recent budget, with chancellor Philip Hammond confirming £270 million of funding to go towards helping the UK lead the world ‘in the development, design and manufacture of batteries that will power the next generation of electric vehicles, helping to tackle air pollution.’ This is a welcome step towards improving battery charging and storage capacity, key measures required to address current widespread ‘range anxiety’ concerning electric vehicles.
Whilst such investment is important, one of the biggest drivers of the rapid development of electric vehicles still comes from legislation. The continued pressure placed on automotive manufacturers through various legislative measures is designed to achieve lower emissions from vehicles. As it becomes more and more difficult to reduce emissions from petrol and diesel powered vehicles, EVS naturally offer an effective way for car makers to lower the average CO2 emissions of their products.
Under the bonnet of the Renault Zoe
It is perhaps surprising, therefore, that the diesel scrappage scheme announcement expected by the chancellor was not included in the spring budget, although he did fire a warning shot to diesel drivers, with the suggestion that a new tax regime could be introduced before the end of the year. Whilst the core aim of such measures would be to reduce pollution, a cashback or incentive to buy a low-emission vehicle could well result in a rapid increase in consumer demand for electric vehicles. While we’re awaiting the next government announcement, several local authorities have already begun to try to discourage people from driving diesel cars with higher parking charges for diesels in city centres, another incentive for some commuters to review the offering of an electric vehicle.
Of course, the car makers themselves are playing a significant role in driving demand for the new generation of electric vehicles. The ability of manufacturers to develop vehicles that are desirable, affordable and have sufficient range capabilities, is a significant factor in uptake – essentially the automotive manufacturers, spurred on by increasingly demanding legislation, are designing more attractive and practical cars. Moreover, elite and recognised global brands are increasingly enticing early-adopters, changing consumer opinions and boosting demand still further.
In this ever-evolving landscape, there’s no doubt that the appeal of electric vehicles is increasing. It’s predicted that by 2050 EVs will have utterly saturated the passenger vehicle fleet; an area which accounts for 69 per cent of all vehicles on UK roads. However, this shift in how we all get around in future is set to provide a real challenge for our already struggling national grid. When you think of just how much energy will be needed to power the majority of vehicles on our roads, the mainstream shift from fuel tanks to batteries will be a colossal ask of our ageing infrastructure. The energy demands once catered for by burning a truly enormous quantity of petrol and diesel will instead be taken as electricity from the grid – a hell of a change in capacity and load profile demands.
While the grid as a whole theoretically has the capacity to accommodate EV charging in the short term, higher uptake in certain areas, combined with lack of infrastructure investment, has the potential to create imminent and significant local level challenges. Our old grid is constantly being stretched to its limits, expected to do more and more as the consumer demand for power shows no signs of abating. Improvements and investment are desperately needed.
The announcements in this year’s Spring Budget do show the government’s determination to invest in the future of electric vehicles and to ensure the UK remains at the forefront of innovative technology, whether that be electric vehicles or battery charging. But it must be recognised that this is not purely an automotive sector issue, affecting just the car manufacturers and battery and charging point developers. With changing consumer preferences in this arena and the anticipated shift to the majority of people relying on fully electric vehicles over the next couple of decades, there will be an enormous impact in every industry sector. If we’re to realise the dream of an electric vehicle future, we must take a more holistic view of our evolving energy requirements and act now to develop a robust infrastructure to meet our future needs.
Fuel cell at home could be used to generate electricity, shower water, heating.
I have a diesel car at the moment which I purchased as it was the low emissions and low VED option, and it offered me 57+mpg on my 60 mile round trip each working day.
My next car will be petrol as it offers similar mpg with lower cost fuel, so the cost per mile is lower, and the performance will be better. I could easily use a EV for commuting; but I rarely see EV charging points on my trips in rural areas, particularly in the west country. This lack of charging facilities is a problem for me; I am now considering a hybrid, but have been put off by the lack of knowledge regarding running and servicing costs I experienced from the dealers I have visited.
If the government (of whatever colour) really want us ordinary folk with normal incomes to use EV’s or plug-in hybrids then the infrastructure needs to be concentrated on, rather than penalising diesel drivers; the manufacturer’s sales people also need to get up to speed on the true costs of ownership as well!
In my article in Green energy news I cover some of these issues, but short term EV probably wont be the buying publics short term choice as you note. http://www.greenenergynews.co.uk/businesses-can-benefit-alternative-energy-solutions/
My current Diesel will be replaced in the next two years by an EV, but first I need to sell my Terraced house and buy one with off street parking so I can charge overnight when Grid demand is low. 2017 will see the release of 140 – 200mile affordable EV’s like the 41 Kwh Renault Zoe (180mile), 28Kwh Hyundai Ioniq (140mile) and Leaf 2.0 (200 miles estimated). It is unfortunate that the 60 Kwh Opel Ampera E (215mile) will only be released in mainland Europe and not the UK and we will be lucky to see the affordable Tesla Model 3 in the UK by next year.
These vehicles are only any use when charging infrastructure is universally available. Fine in built up areas or on trunk and major roads but elsewhere? Liquid fuels, invariably hydrocarbon are readily transported, easily storable and hence available for emergency purposes. So while the drive to EV is worthwhile they will not be a universal panacea for a very long time – if ever. And even in the UK we have places at the back of beyond, many miles from liquid fuel stations let alone grid infrastructure.
I am getting 76mpg + from my 1.6 diesel on a hundred mile trips a day on mixed roads. I have yet to see a petrol engine come anywhere near this with the same performance. I am not a fan of electric vehicles although I am sure it will become a reality one way or another in the not too distant future.
I am just conscious of the fact that we are becoming too reliant on electric everything these days with the very real danger of hackers/governments being able to take control. If your tv, toaster, smart meter etc can be used to spy on you then your car will not only be able to spy on you but run you to the authorities as well or even take you straight to the jail if “it” senses an infringement. I can just see your electric car being cited as evidence in court as it no doubt will be able to report that you were doing 32mph in a 30 mph limit ! Of course this can work in the favour of law enforcement as well but the criminals always seem to have a way round these systems
I can only agree with Peter Rolton. We need a massive investment in infrasture, at all stages from generation to charging stations. So far I see little interest or willingness to provide it. New generation is beset with problems from objectors to almost any form of generator, and suppliers are loath to invest for the prices everyone wants pay.
Allans problem has nothing to do with electric vehicles, thats all down to the engine management and drive systems, and they have already been hacked.
The first hydrogen station has opened with more on the way and one car manufacturer launching and hydrogen car with a range I think of 300 miles. Could this not be better than an EV? Or would it take more electricity to produce hydrogen than to charge an EV?
The efficiency is poor for turning electricity into hydrogen and back for a fuel cell car compared to a pure EV, the companies backing Hydrogen fuel cell technology also are starting to back EV cars as well, guess time will tell which one will win overall, personally I prefer the simplicity on the EV
I have wondered for some time how much electrical power would be required to replace the existing stock of petrol and diesel cars and vans with electric ones. I have never seen a figure quoted and what would this mean in terms of the increase in electricity generation?
As long as EV’s are charged when demand is low there should be little need for extra transmission or power generation. To refine a gallon of liquid fuel consumes enough electricity to power the average EV 25 – 30 miles so as less refined fuel is required there will be extra electricity available.
Do you have a link to the data behind this statement?
Best regards
Roger
If, like most people, you don’t really care how your vehicle is propelled and simply want it to get you from one place to another when needed, then the only difference between a conventional car and electric car is the five minutes it takes to refuel a conventional car against the hour or so for an electric car.
When you think about the charging stations you need at least five times as many as is now needed for conventional cars. The cost of them will be quite a large proportion of the cost of each car. Providing the electricity in the current dysfunctional electricity market that is failing to provide sufficient power right now, is going to be difficult.
I still believe that electric cars are a solution in search of a problem. Even if we get a near miraculous solution to the battery problem, result will be a massive increase in the problem of charging it rapidly. Absent subsidies, government pressure, and other privileges, they would not exist.
We need to think of ways of storing large amounts of energy which we can put back into the grid on a demand basis – batteries are a particularly poor way of doing this at the larger scales, their capacity is limited and they’re full of nasty things. I think we should focus on developing flywheel energy storage – it’s more efficient, less limited, well understood and ‘green’ – I foresee that one day every home/building will have it!
What you have not talked about is the potential storage capacity produced by all these Car Batteries. With solar power charging built into the car or available while parked at home., it will add a tremendous storage capacity which is badly needed now. It will ease the demand on the Grid and solve the problem
Yes – you could charge your EV batteries from your flywheel at home.
Given the current (comparative) short life vis-à-vis charging cycles of batteries, I can imaging that electric car owners would require a substantial payment (maybe in kind) to allow their vehicles & batteries to be used this way
Taking the concept car a stage further: I believe that when stagecoaches were first introduced, the nice people (and particularly ladies) who could afford a seat inside, were so disturbed by the sight of ‘Nature’ in the raw as they passed along the rutted tracks that passed for roads…the curtains/blinds were permanently closed so that they did not need to watch what was happening outside. Unfortunately, notwithstanding the above, travellers got used to the idea of looking ‘out’ from windows…and trains consequently had such! Nice view, maybe but of no merit whatsoever in the mechanics of transport. Come aircraft with ‘cabins’ and later pressurization and the passengers still were afforded windows: even though there was little to ‘see’ and they could make no contribution to dealing with what might be happening outside: at the front in particular! Only the pilot actually needs a window! As I understand it, the cutting of holes (and their filling with highly specialised and stressed glass) in what is a perfect torque tube is about as bad an activity as is possible, from the point of view of maintaining structural integrity. [Surely the camera and electronic technology of today is such that every passenger could be provided with ‘windows’ (screens) that showed everything going on outside (even if they don’t have any control over such! [they don’t] Come the driverless/autonomous car? Again, there are enough cameras already spread around these to give all passengers a view, but without the need for ‘holes’ and glass (see above?) that the same situation might apply? I could imagine some future vehicle for transporting humans that was extremely strong, and avoided un-necessary ‘cuts’ in its structure.
The aspect missing in this discussion is that unless the electricity used to power cars comes from sources that are more efficient than internal combustion engines, total energy demand will,increase, and unless it is supplied by non-fossil sources, pollution is simply shifted elsewhere. Furthermore, cars charging overnight won’t be able to benefit from solar power (although, as has been pointed out, they could store it).