Rolls-Royce is confident that strong growth will continue in both major (100 seats and over) and regional aircraft sectors, in addition to the corporate jet market, resulting in a demand for more than 100,000 civil aero engines over the next two decades. The forecast’s calculations include spare engines but not spare parts.
Compared with the previous Rolls-Royce civil aerospace market forecast, the new statistics predict demand for 17,000 more engines, resulting in additional revenues of approximately $117 billion. The expectations of stronger growth and increased liberalisation in Asian markets are among the reasons for the increase.
With annual traffic growth estimated at 5.1 per cent, global passenger numbers are expected to double within the period of the forecast. Asia Pacific will have the highest growth rate at seven per cent, and by 2020, a third of world traffic will be carried by airlines in that region.
Using data from a variety of industry sources, including input from the world’s leading airlines, Rolls-Royce predicts that the strong growth in the market for aircraft of 100 seats and over will require 71,000 engines with a market value of $415 billion between now and the year 2020.
The forecast for corporate jets over the next 20 years estimates the need for 30,000 engines worth $50 billion. The introduction of 24 new aircraft types in this sector in the last five years has been made possible largely by modern engines such as the AE 3007, BR710 and Williams-Rolls FJ44.
The demand for large aircraft plus growing regional fleets will mean an estimated 29,000 new planes in those sectors – almost 11,000 to replace retired aircraft, and the remainder to satisfy market growth. Freighters account for nearly 1,000 aircraft, reflecting anticipated growth in cargo traffic of 6.5 per cent a year. The corporate jet market is expected to generate orders for 14,000 aircraft.
The largest sector of the forecast measured by engine deliveries is the 22,000lb – 45,000lb thrust category which includes Airbus A320 series, Boeing 737 and Boeing 757 aircraft. The dominant portion of the market in terms of value, however, is expected to be for engines of 65,000lb thrust and above, powering Airbus A330, A380 and Boeing 777 airliners.
Because of insufficient data, the forecast does not include an estimated requirement for proposed new-generation near-supersonic or transonic aircraft although the general assumption is that they would operate long-haul services, so reducing the anticipated numbers of widebodied aircraft in that sector.