US AIA Chief says outlook is plain glum

The US Aerospace Industries Association has revised its estimate for US aerospace industry sales based on the wake of the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington.

The US Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) has revised its estimate for US aerospace industry sales based on the wake of the September 11th terrorist attacks on New York and Washington.

According to John W. Douglass, President and CEO of the AIA, testifying before the US House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, commercial aircraft and parts sales are now expected to decline this year by approximately $2 billion from its previous estimate.

Prior to the events of September 11, the AIA had predicted industry sales of $145 billion, a $1.6 billion sales increase this year from 2000. Now it expects total industry sales to decline by $400 million, to $143 billion – from the $143.4 billion in sales in 2000.

For 2002, AIA projects that industry sales could decline as much as $5.6 billion, and by $6.7 billion in 2003. Increased sales in space and defence markets may offset to some extent the decline in commercial sales, depending on the way the administration responds to the crisis.

Douglass added that the effects of this crisis in the civil aviation industry are obviously manifest in aerospace employment. Boeing has already announced the possibility that as many as 30,000 workers will be laid off over the course of the next year as a result of airline retrenchment.

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