Boeing has released its 2003 Current Market Outlook at the Paris Air Show today, noting a forecast of a $5.2 trillion market for new commercial airplanes and aviation services over the next 20 years.
Boeing estimates the world fleet will more than double to 34,000 jets by 2022, comprising approximately 18,400 airplanes for market growth; 5,900 airplanes for replacement; and 9,700 airplanes currently flying.
The mix of current and new airplanes is expected to accommodate a forecast of 5.1 percent per year growth in world air travel. Regional growth is said to vary between 4 and 7.3 percent, with Latin America expected to be the fastest-growing region.
‘The progression from a regulated to liberalised market has increased competition among airlines and is forcing them to operate at much higher levels of efficiency to remain profitable,’ said Randy Baseler, Boeing Commercial Airplanes’ vice president, Marketing. ‘Passenger preference for more frequent, non-stop flights with shorter trip times will continue to drive market evolution and airline strategies.’
Boeing projects that airlines will invest $1.9 trillion in new commercial airplanes, which equates to 24,275 airplane deliveries over the next 20 years.
Of that total 18 percent (or 4,300 deliveries) will be for smaller regional jets (below 90 seats) whilst 56 percent (or 13,645 deliveries) will be for larger regional jets and single-aisle airplanes. A further 22 percent (or 5,440 deliveries) will be for intermediate-size airplanes and 4 percent (or about 890 deliveries) will be for 747 and larger size airplanes.
Baseler pointed out that when flying to Paris in 1980 from a city more than 5,000 kilometres away, there were few choices of direct non-stop service. Multiple connections may have been required to complete the journey. Today, there are almost two-and-a-half more non-stop markets and four and a half more scheduled flights, with a slight decrease in airplane size.
‘This is a typical example of market fragmentation,’ Baseler said. ‘Air travel growth is being met by more non-stops and frequencies rather than an increase in airplane size.’
The freighter fleet will double over the next 20 years from 1,752 to 3,501 airplanes. Freighters, as a share of the total airplane fleet, will fall from 11 to 10 percent due to an increase in the size of the average freighter. Taking 1,227 retirements into account, nearly 3,000 airplanes will be added to the freighter fleet by 2022.
Boeing also estimates that the commercial aviation support services market will be worth about $3.3 trillion over the next 20 years, with annual revenues considerably more than that for the new airplane market.
Boeing’s report is posted on the company’s Web site at <A HREF=’http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/’>Current Market Outlook</A>