Rolls-Royce is predicting continued growth in business jet deliveries through the remainder of the decade and forecasts an engine market worth $61 billion over the next 20 years, with medium to long-range jets dominating in terms of aircraft and engine value. The forecast was released yesterday at a press conference at the National Business Aviation Association Convention in Orlando, Florida.
Additionally, the forecast identified the emerging markets of China, India and Russia as growth regions for the industry, indicating that these markets will play a relatively larger role through the forecast period.
Alan Stiley, Rolls-Royce Vice President for Marketing, Corporate and Regional Aircraft said: “The growth trend for business jet deliveries now exceeds the pace of narrow body commercial airliner deliveries. The largest segment in terms of engine value will remain the medium, long-range and ultra long-range aircraft, where Rolls-Royce is well positioned with its BR710 and Tay engines. In fact the market share by aircraft value for these aircraft will remain near 70 percent.”
Rolls-Royce forecasts that 48,000 engines, valued at $61 billion, will be needed over the next 20 years to meet demand for 23,000 new corporate jet aircraft from very light jets through to business jetliners. Demand is also being fuelled by the business community’s increasing recognition of the value of using business jets as a productivity tool. In addition, evolving fractional programs are expanding the market by lowering the cost of entry and ownership.
The company projects deliveries of 15,400 aircraft in the 20-year timeframe, including 3,650 in the large business jet category, such as the ultra long-range Bombardier and Gulfstream families, powered by Rolls-Royce BR710 engines.
In the corporate jet market, Rolls-Royce predicts growth in each segment, with a 32 percent increase in deliveries from 2005 to2014 and an additional nine percent from 2015 to 2024.
While North America is expected to remain the largest market for business jet deliveries in the next 20 years, China, India and Russia are expected to witness a large increase in activity. The forecast for these countries, based on the key drivers of economic activity, infrastructure growth and market liberalisation, predicts that 500-700 business jets would be delivered over the next 10 years, an increase of 600 percent.