Boeing detailed its 2003 Current Market Outlook (CMO) for the People’s Republic of China, forecasting a requirement in China for nearly 2,400 new jet aircraft worth $197 billion over the next 20 years.
According to the CMO, China’s airlines will add 1,960 new aircraft to serve domestic markets including Hong Kong and Macau. Nearly 440 new aircraft will be added by China’s airlines to provide international services.
Regional jets and single-aisle aircraft will account for 87 percent of the aircraft delivered to serve the domestic market. More than 560 intermediate-size, twin-aisle aircraft will be delivered to serve both domestic and international markets.
By 2022, Chinese carriers will be flying more than 2,850 passenger and cargo aircraft, making China’s fleet the largest outside of the United States and China’s commercial jet fleet will quadruple in size over the next twenty years.
The CMO added that in 2022, single-aisle aircraft will remain the core of China’s fleet, representing nearly two-thirds of the total. Ten percent of the units in the 2022 fleet will be small and intermediate-size regional jets. Another 22 percent will be intermediate-size, twin-aisle aircraft, and just four percent will be 747-size and larger.
The need for new aircraft is required to support a 7.1 percent annual increase in air travel in China from 2003 to 2022, compared to the world average of 5.1 percent.
‘China is one of the fastest growing markets in the world for commercial aviation,’ said Randy Baseler, vice president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Aircraft. ‘China’s 20-year Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast is 6.2 percent – the highest in the world, and Boeing projects that domestic air travel growth will outpace the GDP growth over the next two decades.’
The Boeing forecast estimates the world fleet will more than double by 2022 to a total fleet size of 34,000 aircraft. In the same forecast period, 5,890 aircraft will be retired from active commercial service and replaced.
During the next 20 years, airlines will take delivery of more than 24,000 aircraft worth $1.9 trillion in 2002 US dollars. The full forecast is available <A HREF=’http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo’>Here</A>