Peaks and troughs

According to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS), the global semiconductor market will, after a decline of 32% in 2001 resume positive growth in 2002.

Industry’s expectation at the previous forecast session in autumn of last year was that the semiconductor market would grow by 2.6% in 2002 over 2001.

The spring session confirmed the previously established scenario, whereby the new forecast shows 2.3% growth of 2002 over 2001.

The recovery to positive growth rates will, according to the WSTS, happen slowly and as the recovery process starts from a very low base, only Asia Pacific will show positive growth in 2002, whereas Japan, Americas and Europe will still not show positive growth in 2002.

By 2003 all regions will see positive double-digit growth with 21.7% worldwide average growth. Memories and microprocessors will lead the recovery in 2002, other products will follow with a delay of about 6 months.

WSTS projects the year 2003 to be the year of peak growth and expects a deceleration of semiconductor market growth thereafter, with growth rates of 14.5% for 2004 and 3.2% for 2005.

The market size in 2005 is expected to slightly exceed the peak year of 2000.

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