Last night’s address to the nation from PM Boris Johnson has put unprecedented restrictions of people’s movements, with the overriding message being: ‘stay at home’.
The PM’s address, given at 8.30pm on March 23, told people to restrict movements to:
- shopping for basic necessities, as infrequently as possible
- performing one form of exercise a day, but alone or with members of your household;
- attending to any medical need, or to provide care or help a vulnerable person; and
- travelling to and from work only if it is absolutely necessary and cannot be done from home.
“To put it simply, if too many people become seriously unwell at one time, the NHS will be unable to handle it – meaning more people are likely to die, not just from Coronavirus but from other illnesses as well,” Johnson said.
It is a marked contrast to the view from No.10 earlier in the month, but the spread of Covid-19 could have a devastating impact on those whose job it is to maintain vital services, including, for example, those involved in transport, utilities, communications, healthcare, education, plus food production, processing, and distribution.
This week we’re asking if government’s most recent actions have arrived at the right time, are too late or whether they’re too draconian? We welcome your thoughts on this truly unique situation in Comments, but we ask that you become acquainted with our Guidelines for Readers before submitting.
The one thing that has been missed is the air conditioning in the stores ! went into Lidl’s and it was blasting down the aisle ! anybody sneezing or coughing the virus will be blown everywhere over the food on the shelfs and on the people shopping!
Actions are appropriate and never too late
There is currently no evidence that Coronavirus (COVID-19) is airborne, the virus appears to spread via droplets and direct contact with contaminated surfaces and objects.
We have to trust those those with definite COVID-19 symptoms remain indoors and take home deliveries of food. But Air-Con in well-populated buildings is an annual problem for the spread of all viruses; and, a contributor to climate-change issues as more countries across the world upgrade to air-conditioning equipment for comfort – increasingly utilised as global temperatures continue to rise. Would be good if supermarkets could switch off their Air-con systems whilst ambient temperature remain below hot summer levels.
I wonder if the epidemiologists modelled what would happen if they forcibly quarantined those with heart or lung conditions and the over 70’s or even the over 60’s a few weeks back, and let the virus take its course through the younger healthy population. The NHS might have been able to cope with the small proportion of serious cases in that group and the economy would not have been shattered. When the vulnerable were then released from quarantine, herd immunity might have been sufficient to protect them. I hope they at least thought of and looked at this option and decided it wouldn’t work.
These results are probably too draconian, although it depends on how you interpret the requirements – again not particularly clear.
Last weeks recommendation should have been imposed as a legal requirement and not a ‘please’ do this .
Even last week people from other infected areas were being allowed to fly in without quarantine – absolutely ridiculous – Should have been a total lock down of people coming into (even returning) to the country with compulsory 7/14 day isolation.
It was an inevitable move, but more could have been done sooner. Instead of vague and confusing messages such as be prepared to self-isolate for 14 days for example. Stay away from work and so on. There should have been contingency plans in place to deal with the inevitable consequences of those suggestions. Told to be able to self isolate, so the first thing that people will do is stock up! As supermarkets only hold around 1 weeks worth of stock, of course they would run out. Stay away from work without income coming in, what did they think would happen? Too much thinking on the hoof and perhaps the most telling thing was the suggestion that if we carry on as normal herd immunity will kick in, good plan apart from the fact that they failed to realise that it means everyone getting the virus quickly with all the complications and immedite consequences. Strategic planning is not at the heart of this government. What happened to resilience planning? Oh I forgot, that means stockpiling critical goods and supplies, ensuring staff and facilities have capacity and more! This however doesn’t fit with just in time, minimising stock, or cutting staff capacity, hospital beds etc to the bone. One of the ministers had suggested we don’t need farming or manufacturing! Our manufacturing capacity has been slashed and on a large scale involves assembling parts that we import, and we can import all our food so we don’t need foreign workers on farms, but the millions of layabouts on the dole can do it instead, except there aren’t that many! Obsession with pen-pushing or keyboard punching as the best and most lucrative career option has gone too far. Britain got wealthy by transforming imported raw materials into goods for sale, we are now too dependant on slave labour in foreign countries doing what we used to do. The Victorians used Engineering to get where they were, it has been squandered since the 70s with the move to financial services alone supporting the economy, oh and oil which will eventually run out once we have polluted the atmosphere.
I have been in shops where the Air Con is so cold, I have left………hardy assistants, I must say
Several weeks too late as the virus has already infected hundreds of people,& still people consider it perfectly okay to gather in hordes @ tourist spots. I recently saw video of a southern bikers cafe with it’s carpark heaving,also hordes jostling outside a supermarket. The news yesterday showed homemade signs informing people to return home as Wales/Cumbria etc was now closed. It’s not just the UK suffers from idiots,Australia has the same problem leading to authorities closing beaches after they’d dispersed the crowds.
As usual too little too late, those that flew in unchecked from the “hot spots” will have already spread the virus, and its exponential transfer rate will hasten the point at which overload will be driving treatment decisions.
Refrigeration plays an enormous part in the work of all of our Hospital Pharmacies, and critically, the laboratories that are being tasked with testing samples from suspect carriers, and those that are researching for a long term “cure”. But I have seen no mention of support to ensure that the staff to maintain pharmaceutical storage and research facilities will be available at short notice , rather, that wide spread reduction in work load could lead to those with the necessary skills being at risk of being placed on unpaid leave, whilst the system to guarantee part of their salary is slowly rolled out. Those who maintain the facilities are just as important as those who need them to ensure vital aspects of their research comes to fruition.
I’m not sure there is a distinction between an airborne virus and a virus carried as a bio-aerosol cloud of micron to sub-micron droplets in air. In any case the whole story is not yet known why this strain is so much more infectious (~1:3) than say influenza (~1:1.5) and the hand washing hasn’t proved as effective as it ought
The very first vaccination, against smallpox was a rough-and-ready procedure involving opening a vein and placing cowpox-infected pus into the patient’s bloodstream. They suffered a mild disease but were thereafter immune from smallpox. Later vaccines were produced from the (attenuated) disease organism itself. This approach could potentially be a very fast track to a corona virus vaccine – risky, for sure – but arguably no more so than allowing a ‘controlled’ infection through the relatively healthy population to develop the ‘herd immunity’ that was being seriously considered until recently
It was an inevitable move, but more could have been done sooner. Instead of vague and confusing messages such as be prepared to self-isolate for 14 days for example. Stay away from work and so on. There should have been contingency plans in place to deal with the inevitable consequences of those suggestions. Told to be able to self isolate, so the first thing that people will do is stock up! As supermarkets only hold around 1 weeks worth of stock, of course they would run out. Stay away from work without income coming in, what did they think would happen? Too much thinking on the hoof and perhaps the most telling thing was the suggestion that if we carry on as normal herd immunity will kick in, good plan apart from the fact that they failed to realise that it means everyone getting the virus quickly with all the complications and immedite consequences. Strategic planning is not at the heart of this government. What happened to resilience planning? Oh I forgot, that means stockpiling critical goods and supplies, ensuring staff and facilities have capacity and more! This however doesn’t fit with just in time, minimising stock, or cutting staff capacity, hospital beds etc to the bone. One of the ministers had suggested we don’t need farming or manufacturing! Our manufacturing capacity has been slashed and on a large scale involves assembling parts that we import, and we can import all our food so we don’t need foreign workers on farms, but the millions of layabouts on the dole can do it instead, except there aren’t that many! Obsession with pen-pushing or keyboard punching as the best and most lucrative career option has gone too far. Britain got wealthy by transforming imported raw materials into goods for sale, we are now too dependant on slave labour in foreign countries doing what we used to do.
What annoys me is not that the measures have been imposed, but that they are imposed immediately without prior warning and with insufficient explanation and clarification. It would help if we had 24 h warning so people had a chance to get their life in order a little. (I now wish I’d brought my docking station and a monitor from work, picked up some printer paper, etc). Although in fairness I suppose it would have led to a mad scramble for goods and services and potentially spread the virus more rapidly … Then B&Q (for example) closed, but now it has been told it is providing an “essential service” so is looking at options for reopening. Chaos and confusion.
WHO should have classed this as a pandemic once it is was spread in more than five countries. They were too slow in moving governments to do some immediate action. If they had done this what is happening now we would have stopped it dead, rather than worry about the economy suffering. It is suffering a lot more now because of lack of immediate action!
It’s obviously necessary to put measures in place to protect those most at risk, but I think the response is over the top, haphazard, irrational and being made up as we go along.
I still fail to comprehend why many of these measures are required when seasonal flu, even with vaccines, is still the biggest risk and killer for those in the ‘at risk’ group – average of 17,000 deaths in England every year !
I’d suggest that in six months time when all this has blown over the major casualty is going to be the economy and not huge numbers of deaths.
I realise questioning the party line and not reacting irrationally is frowned upon but as an engineer I believe we should base our response on hard facts and data and not emotions.
Another Steve: I fully agree that we should apply numeracy and logic to the issue. However, it is not the death rate that is the problem here it is the severe ICU rate. The excess death rate is not even detectable, in that the death rate in the UK in winter varies from 10,000/day to 14,000 /day: it has been about 2,000/day down on average due to the mild winter and low seasonal flu this year.
Glad that the Engineer is fighting-on!
The measures look necessary seeing the rate of increase mirroring what has been experienced in Italy. It is not alarmist to state we may see daily death tolls in the UK of 700+ within 14-21 days. We must do what we can to prevent the spread to buy the time needed to properly understand this scientifically. Germany has 156 deaths for 32,781 cases; the UK 422 deaths for 8,077 cases. Why has South Korea had so few deaths (120) when it has recorded more infections than the UK? They have organised more rapid testing and issued text messages to people close to an area with outbreaks. People will heed the advice to stay indoors when they know someone up the road has the virus. Shops test a person’s temperature before allowing them in. We’ve all approached this believing it won’t happen to us. It needs to be understood with a vaccination / eradication plan before next winter or it could return even more widespread.
Nobody is suggesting the F&M solution. Yet!
COVID-19 virus indeed spreads via contact with surfaces or via water droplets, but that does not mean that it is not airborn: micron size droplets are sufficient.
Whilst I think BJ is doing a reasonable job it is not perfect and needs improving, which I think he realises. I am aware that in the NHS there are supply chain problems with test kits, personal protective clothing and equipment which is hardly surprising. As engineers we should be asking what we can do to improve this situation so the country can come out of isolation. We Brits have always risen to challenges in the past and we will do so now as 400k volunteers to the NHS has shown .
Looking to those countries that have slowing down /peaked rate of infection it is plain to see how they attempt to break the chain by deep cleaning activities, inc attempting to disinfect a outside in the roads.How effective is this in contributing to their control of spread of the virus & why are the UK not even started? Suggest powers that be must know something or else too focussed only on isolation, so divide and conquer not yet appropriate…. Do not believe we would be short of volunteers to start deep cleaning, given response to nhs helpers, but clearly ppe, equipment/materials & training needed in support until vaccine ready.
Talking of supermarkets to date not even seen any of their baskets/trolleys etc the customers need to shop are being deep cleaned, rather up to customer to exercise whatever level of caution they see fit- nothing to masks/gloves & then upon return home wash hands only. So seems UK not yet even thinking of also going after the virus as aggressively as those countries where it is claimed to be under control.
The actions are too late. A lockdown more quickly implemented would have been less painful in the long run and lowered the number of cases more quickly.
My wife has a Phd in Immunology, completed two Post-Doc positions in UK Universities, and works in the Bio-Medical industry so her knowledge and experience which I relate above should not be dismissed.
Yes too little too late. Though that doesn’t mean we should no longer bother, it merely means we took too long with not enough done at an early enough stage! Clearly the mantra better late than never also applies. Though as we have seen in US it is probably that too much focus was put on trying to avoid spending money instead of taking decisive useful measures before it started to hit us. What happened to all the contingency plans for lots of medical support, shelter and feeding of the population during the Cold War? Or was the peace dividend far too attractive? We could scrap Trident and its replacement along with HS2 and spend instead on national (not just London and South East) resilience infrastructure projects.