The UK’s lack of a contact tracing app marks a spectacular failure in our ability to deploy existing technology. So who’s to blame, asks Jon Excell?
Much has been made of UK engineering’s response to the pandemic, and rightly so. The way in which organisations across the spectrum have repurposed operations to produce vital medical equipment has been an inspiring reminder of the capabilities of the manufacturing base, and more generally of the importance of engineers to our society.
However, whilst the stories of aircraft manufacturers turning their hands to ventilator production might be a cause for celebration, the UK’s failure so far to deploy a working COVID-19 track and trace app marks a spectacular low point in our ability to apply technology to the challenges we face.
In the early months of the COVID-19 crisis health secretary Matt Hancock said a digital contact tracing app would be key to easing restrictions whilst keeping people safe and yet – almost six months on – whilst Germany, Ireland and a number of other European neighbours have already launched their own COVID-19 exposure apps – the UK is reliant on an “army” of human contact-tracers.
The government’s initial plans to develop a centralised contact-tracing app (announced on May 5th) were abandoned in mid-June owing to compatibility issues with Android and Apple devices, and it is now working with Apple and Google on an alternative design that it has warned may not be available until the winter.
In the meantime, the existing track and trace system – despite being repeatedly hailed as “world-beating” by the prime minister – is thought to be falling well short of what’s required; with health bosses in some regions warning that the system is failing to reach more than 50 per cent of contacts.
According to modelling carried out by researchers from UCL and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (reported in the Lancet) if the UK is to avoid a winter peak even worse than that seen in April, and – critically – push ahead with the September school return, both testing and contact tracing will need to be scaled up significantly.
Against this backdrop, and the pressing need for a solution, it’s hard to view our failure to roll out a system that piggybacks on the smartphones that are owned by an estimated 80 per cent of the UK population as anything other than a spectacular failure to tap into the benefits of an existing technology.
None of this is easy, and the technical challenge of developing an app that gathers enough data to be useful without invading people’s privacy should not be underestimated. But neither should it be beyond the wit of a government purportedly skilled in the world of big data. As an aside, given our general willingness to surrender our privacy in return for the use of a host of free apps, it’s possible that selling a contact-tracing app to the general public – widely viewed as one of the key challenges to rolling out a digital contact tracing system – might not be as difficult as some have suggested.
Perhaps this is all unfair. Perhaps a truly “world beating” UK test and trace app will emerge – later than planned, but free from the imperfections and teething problems of other systems. But with no firm commitment to a launch date that seems unlikely. And whilst the calls from experts are growing louder, the urgency that characterised the government’s early talk of an app has all but vanished.
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Where to begin … ?
Is the government to blame – YES ! No doubt.
The UK IT industry is more than capable of producing the technology but instead the government gave the contract to Dominic Cummings mates. Someone got rich, we didn’t get an app but hey ho at least no one died … oh, hold on.
On the other hand, to be successful such an app has to be adopted by a large proportion of the population, and that is probably never going to happen.
I believe the greatest problem is that the British public do not want Apple and Google to know everything about them. The Government might be OK, but not foreign businesses who are known for using our data for their own gain, no way. Android and Apple will not want to share their data when one of them could be making more money doing it on their own.
The survival of man kind is dependent on greed not prevailing.
I think that this is a major government failure which they will not take responsibility for’
As I write this (2020-08-04 @ 13:31 BST) there is no ability to vote.
The question is why is each country trying to do their own app?
Apple and Android needed to do one app each that worked with the other platform and would work across all countries. Why re-invent the wheel multiple times?
The government can’t create anything, it can only fund or legislate such that others do.
As soon as it was announced the NHS IT arm was developing it – Its miserable failure was assured.
The NHS and just about every other government IT project has had a long history of being late, overbudget and not up to the job.
There is also a strong argument that the project presumes too much anyway, that everyone has a suitable smart phone with a data allowance, that those that do have phones are prepared to use the app (correctly), both from the aspect of not liking government tracking them or not wanting to be told to self isolate.
Contact tracing in any contagion is basic public health and the UK has done well on many previous occasions (AIDS/HIV, SARS, the Salisbury poisonings, and others). Bringing a public health emergency under control requires a lot of things to happen at once and the higher the R number (which changes over time and context) the less time there is to get the measures in place. COVID-19 is difficult, it is new and it is an aerosol distributor with lots of asymptomatic carriers. The smartphone app problem is similarly complex, we know that proximity connectivity works well for connecting devices. There is genuine difficulty in scaling this up to give good feed into the rest of the contact and test (and isolate/treat) system. We are not doing well, but we are not doing badly either. We have a false expectation of apps as simple to develop and deploy whereas in practice this is a difficult problem bringing together technology and public health in ways not really tested before. I’d suggest we still need to be prepared to wait – there is no magic fix.
(I have been active in ETSI’s EP eHEALTH and co-authored ETSI’s white paper on how the Standards world can help. This may colour my more positive outlook).
Many – if not all – of the successful apps to date are phone-centric, in contrast to the government’s approach. We don’t need – in the midst of a pandemic – perfect, ‘world-beating’ technology, but a system that works 90% of the time, quickly put in place. It should be here, operating, NOW!
Leaving aside that its members were preselected for their willingness to sign up to a devisive and emotionally driven nationalist project, the UK government lacks people who know how to do societally-useful things and all of their workings and thinking are hidden from us. What we do know, is that under uber-meister Dominic Cummings, they have a bunker mentality, they are technically naive, react to major contingencies by handing mega chunks of our money to dubious buddies without track-records (viz the PPE & OneWeb fiascos) and automatically rule out learning from non-UK agencies. All serious commentators on the pandemic agree that contact-tracing is a top priority. Mature politicians would appoint a humble and technically literate person as contact-tracing minister and he/she would convene a non-partisan panel with at least 50% of them being engineers and including hands-on experts on all operating systems. The first rule would for them not to tempt fate with the term ‘world-beating’. The first questions to consider would be: ‘What works in other countries?’, ‘Can we buy or adapt it?’.
It would be helpful IF we had a voting page to use.
Apologies Ken. The poll link should be live now
The diversion of dyson and rolls royce turning their hands to ventilator design is not a good news. It means there are no companies left in the country who can still design/make this basic piece of medical kit. As for the non-appearance of a track and trace app, it’s all we can expect from a team of people who still think that leaving the EU is a really great idea.
What I really don’t understand is why the politicians took the view that they would go for a “government special IT project”. There is less than a good track record of any government IT system ever working as intended to any timescale and not massively over budget. If the government has said “lets go use the apple/google app” if it worked great and it went wrong they would have been seen as unfortunate but not incompetent. To pick the “we will have a world beating up developed in the UK” means the outcome is either a working app and the country thinks it’s great our no app and the country thinks they are incompetent. To me the choice indicates the arrogance and misplaced confidence of the government, coinciding with the arrogance and misplaced confidence in the experts they picked for the pandemic management – HERD IMMUNITY was the plan 20,000 extra people died because of it compared to what was done in Germany, South Korea etc..
Writing a location app is very simple. Data gathering is also easy to do. The problem comes with who and how that data is used. And what is maybe used for? Most people feel giving that kind of information to others is a privacy issue. Yet we freely give out personal data all the time. Take a photo on a mobile app, location details are there. Have a mobile phone, the towers are pinpointing your location. which is recorded.
Would I be happy with a COVID-19 tracker app, you bet if it helps us get back to normal. BBC had a program some two years ago where testing the spread of a virus . Some 2000 people took part and apps used.
While many countries have developed apps that were adopted, and we could have piggy backed on their work (eg Ireland, Germany) if necessary if it weren’t for nationalistic hubris. I think the app was always a dead cat, meant to give the impression of action when none was really taking place, while giving the developers an impossible task. Because isn’t the real problem that Bluetooth is not the right technology? For example, it is isotropic so cannot determine in which direction is a potential contact, it can pass through quite a lot of real virus barriers with some attentuation and therefore it is difficult to calibrate distance. So any app may be quite useful in determining how close is another phone but not necessarily the owner thereof and phones do not catch Covid. And if someone suspects they have contracted the virus which would end with them having to self-isolate, there is an incentive to leave the phone at home. In the meantime, letting contracts to all and sundry with little if any public health backgound and without ensuring integration with the NHS IT system so that GPs can be kept informed is far more important.
I agree with so many of the comments made above but as mentioned the real telling problem/block is the stupid mantra of “British” and “world beating”. This is not a time for political point scoring but for saving lives. If there is an app out there, and there does appear to be, then get it and use it ASAP.
Why not adopt one of those already in use in, say, Ireland (including NI, part of the U.K. )?
Government incompetence by failing to understand what would be involved in implementing a complex system. A technical solution is possible, as is the Star Trek vision of their computer. It is the practical reality of the holistic concept that is where most such projects fail. They don’t do a proper paper planning exercise first which must include consideration of all the other aspects probably non-technical that the eventual system is entirely dependant on! They don’t do a proper systems analysis but prefer the marketing led ‘good-news’ instead.
Track and Trace and a working Vaccine are all based on the assumption that catching this virus can be avoided and that science will come up with a ‘cure’. This assumption is false, as evidenced by ‘normal’ Flu and the Common Cold. All we can do, and need to do, is protect the vulnerable and enact basic, personal hygiene measures – wash your hands, don’t cough over people and stay at home if you are unwell.
Applying sensible measures are achievable and affordable without closing down society. Unfortunately, this government has rolled out project fear and terrified everyone and effectively bankrupted our country – worse is to come with Brexit and a sell out to the USA.
I recall a programme ‘years ago’ whereby Google could track the spread of infections based on search terms used, no app needed. Seems the basic tracking technology is already there. A cynic might think gathering data was more important than infection tracking ?
I just Google searched “uk government it …” and before I could finish typing the very first autocomplete suggestion I was offered was “uk government it project failure” says it all really
This LOW TECH scheme was reported on the BBC yesterday https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-53635692
According to the BBC “Further research concluded that wastewater sampling could provide a signal of a coronavirus outbreak up to a week earlier than medical testing” + in the full interview it was claimed testing could be done to the individual pumping station level
Not everyone has a smart phone.
Some of those without one have a simpler ‘feature’ phone or none at all, often by choice.
How then will a tracking app work?
Govt strategy appears to be “which of our mates could do with a hefy wedge of cash,we’ll then claim they’re producing something to fight the pandemic”(wedge to Co,for ships..turns out they don’t even possess a canoe,wedge to Co for PPE,tweets appear asking if anyone has PPE for sale,Honors to friends/family…nothing to the armies of volunteers that fed,distributed medicines etc,PM issues instructions to Stay home,only applies to us plebs,not to govt advisors/MP’s etc etc,message changed to Stay Alert = You catch C-19,it’s your own fault for not being alert enough)This govt have done very little to assist in combating C-19,our PM even managed to catch it himself. The various stream of minions rolled in front of the cameras,were only to protect BJ as he will simply point a finger at whoever is found to have told the biggest lies when uttering the govt messages. He blamed the Care Homes for the deaths of their residents,rather than admit it was due to the govt clearing hospital beds(for future C-19 sufferers)by ejecting hospital patients into the care homes WITHOUT them being tested for C-19. Our PM is most notably absent from view more often than available to take questions(probably got his fridge nicely decked out now so much nicer for him to hide in than deal with the UK’s problems)Anything critical of his govts handling of anything,he sits on the report(Russian report,gang exploitation of young,etc)Now the govt are issuing localised lockdowns,telling the public not to visit each other but it’s okay to go to pubs/restaurants or shopping,& here’s a little bonus to help you pay to eat out(but obesity is a problem in the UK)
As for track & trace,who knew so many Mickey Mouses existed in the UK & needed go out for a drink.Our local News reported on how many of the details offered were either inaccessible numbers,illegible handwriting(again,who would’ve guessed that drunk people couldn’t write legibly)or made up names.
Social media is full of “I’m not wearing a mask,I refuse to be controlled” Pretty simple choice, wear a face covering,or end up wearing a ventilator. Evidence is evolving that there’s at least a 40% reduction in transmission of C-19 by simply wearing a face covering.
Motorcycles are an ideal form of transport during this pandemic,yet they’re excluded from any mention in govt policy. Bicycles though,get designated road space,govt handouts to fix up your bicycle etc etc.
Unfortunately,this shower of imbeciles we have to call a govt aren’t likely to be removed from power ever as the company dealing with gathering of statistics is now run by the wife of a certain Tory “bigwig”
Gosh, we cannot exist without a Mobile Phone App, yet NHS England have excellent mapping of the current situation up to, but not including, the England Scotland border and the England Wales border.
Now why is this? I have family in Scotland but cannot monitor their local situation and threat level they are exposed to.
Basically, we are not prepared to share a common standard of information for petty nationalistic reasons.
We have already been advised our so called chums on the Continent they will not cooperate because we do not wish to pay for their parties.
Ireland has an app and they made this freely available to Linux about a month ago so this should be easily adapted to android and apple systems as these are all based on Linux. If it works for Ireland why not the UK? South Korea and Singapore also have an app so why not use these?
We have an outstanding track record of management failures for government IT projects in the UK.
Clearly Dom hasn’t got any more friends that he could place the contract with (without tender) that are any more capable than the last one.
Vote Tories, get Tories.
I feel sorry for all those that didn’t but as a nation we’re represented by our elected leaders. We’re a nation that chooses greed over compassion, and we have the leaders we deserve as a result.
Examining the track record of the individuals in charge might explain it. Dido Harding – in charge of Talk Talk when they had the I.T. breach which cost it £60m and lost 95,000 customers. Earned the headline “TalkTalk boss Dido Harding’s utter ignorance is a lesson to us all”. But she is on the main board of the Jockey Club, a huge donor to the Tory party.
Incompetence or corruption ? Never let a good pandemic go to waste … procurement processes do exist, for good or bad, but this is an emergency so let’s throw our experience and expertise out the window.
Government advisor, advises government to place £250M contract for PPE with a finance company, with no PPE experience, that operates through tax havens, via said advisors shell company. PPE turns out to be useless. Go figure, no-one will be prosecuted or go to prison but people will die.
It may seem obvious but we have no Idea what the end result should look like and if you have a lack of real direction you end up with panic buying to save face -If there was a building that burns down or an earthquake then I would assume that there is a best practice scenario -This is then acted upon to best advantage to serve the distressed people and infrastructure -No politics should enter this discussion but sadly as we are watching the explosion in Beirut the only thing left to do is squabble
An app is only a means to an end. Germany et al have had working apps for some time now but there seems to be little evidence they delivered the end results. Eg https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53485569
“Germany’s Corona-Warn-App was rolled out nationwide in June. A few days ago, the Robert Koch Institute provided an update on its progress, celebrating the fact that it had now been installed by around 16 million people.
“A successful start that speaks for great interest and acceptance among the population,” a statement from the app’s developer said.
Bear in mind, however, that there are 83 million Germans, and it is thought more than half of the population need to have an app before it is truly effective.
“The app works” added the institute’s president Prof Lothar Wieler. He went on to say that about 500 app users had tested positive for the virus and “had the opportunity to warn others via the app”.
But he then said: “We cannot say exactly how many people were warned, because of the decentralised approach of the app.”
In other words, we do not know whether the software is performing its key function.”
The mixture of response to the question shows that “the science” is far from being good. Decisions have had to be made on highly uncertain information and no country seems to be problem free. Sweden is the most interesting having been the only one to follow the “herd-immunity” approach the the UK were originally going to follow.
Track and trace is one of many “known-unknowns” where this science is concerned. Many of the claims made for other countries successes with T&T are very dubious – only time will tell us the truth.
@ jack broughton
Herd immunity (with the addition on a vaccine) is about the only way the virus will come under control. As one epidemiologist said ‘the virus will be finished when there is no more dry wood.’
So the key targets are
1. Prevent it overloading our health system.
2. Protecting the more vulnerable.
3. Build up herd immunity (hopefully immunity can be built up/ and its long lived) without risking (1) or (2)
4. Vaccine development and delivery
Not convinced that an app is particularly any more helpful than conventional track and trace.
Despite all the moaning, nobody has mentioned that it is actually illegal as it requires people to give their personal information which is fine, but it requires those registering and having to provide other peoples personal details and this breaches so much legislation.
Let me ask a simple question!!! how many people posting here would like me to give their personal information to someone, especially a Government and one using so many untrustworthy bodies.
Track and trace in the UK is made difficult by the lack of simple ID cards. Germany has always had these, together with police registration in ones area of residence. If we had implemented ID cards a few years ago just think how easy it would be to leave and follow-up track and trace info. Maybe it is a good time to revisit this topic?
A similarity between Covid and Global Warming is that “experts”, “scientists”, “epidemiologists” and professors can be wheeled out to say whatever the paying party wants to hear. Maybe we should all look at the role of experts a bit more.
In justice, experts are called for each side in the case and the judge has to weigh-up which experts make the more credible case: neither side’s experts are treated as superior. A lot of the media seem to think that if an “expert or scientist” says something it is incontrovertible. This actually does a disservice to the good work of the many unseen scientists.
The UK is relying on a voluntary system of information from visitors to locations.
The information given appears almost useless: a name ( often D.Duck or M.Mouse etc) and a mobile number in most cases that I’ve seen, the establishments have no duty to validate this or even question it.
If the UK had introduced ID cards a few years back, this would have been easily covered by scanning id cards. It could also have avoided the dreadful “Windrush scandal” and simplify “stop an search” greatly. Surely it is the right time to reconsider ID cards, we have the technology for this in the DVLC system whic covers a lot of the population already.
Ireland have a track and trace system and gave it to the free linux community, which powers both android and apple so it shpuld be easy to get working in the UK.
Having researched a little online,it would appear that the biggest issue with these apps is their reliance on bluetooth. It hasn’t sufficient accuracy to tell what direction it received it’s “C-19 infected person” data from,thus making it inform scores of people they’ve been in contact with an infected person when they haven’t. An app this poor will likely result in testing sites being inundated with people wanting tested,scores of key workers self-isolating thus damaging the economy even more so & the NHS struggling coping with reduced staffing(from them also isolating)on top of all the extra strains placed on hospitals from genuinely infected patients. It would also appear that the national T&T setup is failing miserably whereas local T&T organisations are succeeding admirably.