According to Boeing’s 2005 Current Market Outlook , released today in London, there will be a $2.1 trillion market for new commercial aeroplanes during the next 20 years. Market demands will more than double the world’s commercial aeroplane fleet by 2024 and accommodate a forecasted 4.8% annual increase in passenger traffic growth.
“The long-term demand for new aeroplanes is going to remain very strong over the next 20 years,” said Boeing Commercial Aeroplanes Vice President of Marketing Randy Baseler. “People will continue to desire travelling where they want to go, when they want to go. And that’s reflected in the number and types of aeroplanes we see in our forecast.”
In terms of delivery dollars, the largest market is projected to be the Asia-Pacific region, with 36% of the $2.1 trillion total.
Boeing projects a need for approximately 25,700 new commercial aeroplanes (passenger and freighter) during the next 20 years, more than 80% of which will be in the single-aisle and mid-size twin-aisle categories. This compares with last year’s projection of a 25,000 commercial aeroplane market, worth $2.0 trillion.
Over the next 20 years, airlines will take delivery of approximately 3,900 regional jets; 15,300 single-aisle aeroplanes; 5,600 mid-size twin-aisle aeroplanes; and 900 aeroplanes 747-size or larger (approximately 450 aeroplanes in the 400-500 seats range and approximately 450 aeroplanes of 500 seats and above.)
These deliveries will result in a world fleet of more than 35,000 aeroplanes.
“Single-aisle aeroplanes will dominate the market in the next 20 years because they allow airlines to offer more frequencies and increased non-stops in domestic service and short-haul international flights,” Baseler said.
“Airlines will also be augmenting their fleets with mid-size twin-aisle aeroplanes to service long-haul markets across Pacific and Atlantic routes. Very large aeroplanes, 747-size and greater, will account for only a little over three percent of aeroplane deliveries in the next two decades.”