Generation gap

Security of energy supply must now take priority over everything, even climate change. UK imports of gas and oil are accelerating, just as the fragility of supplies from Russia and the middle east becomes more apparent and the UK heads towards the loss of one third of its generating capacity over the next 12 years.

A total of 23GW (30 per cent of generating capacity) will need to be replaced by 2020, and from 30GW to 35GW by 2027. The impending crisis in power generation could lead to a dramatic shortfall as early as 2012.

This arises from the closure of ageing nuclear and coal-fired stations. The default position is to build new gas-fired stations as they can be completed in four years, but only 4.5GW [of generating capacity is] under construction. In terms of security of supply and energy costs this is unsatisfactory, but new nuclear stations can't be brought on stream earlier than 10 years.