Computer model predicts spread of rioting

According to UCL, the model highlights the importance of considering the layout of cities in order for police to suppress disorder as quickly as possible once a riot is in progress.

‘As riots are rare events it is difficult to anticipate if and how they will evolve. Consequently, one of the main strategic issues that arose for the police during the 2011 London riots concerned when and where to deploy resources and how many officers would be required to control the disorder,’ said Toby Davies, UCL Security & Crime Science and co-author of a study published in Scientific Reports that details the research.

‘The model we’ve created highlights the most susceptible areas of the city and has the potential to anticipate the escalation of rioting. Theoretically this could be employed by the police in future to assist in deploying their resources more effectively.’

Using data supplied by the Metropolitan Police, with retail centres as the sites of disorder, the team were reportedly able to simulate and analyse the patterns arising from these events. This focused around looking at the nature of participation, the distances travelled to riot locations, and the deterrent effect of policing.