Enormous fossil resources should remain unrecovered, recommends UCL sustainability institute

This is the conclusion of a study carried out by the UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources and funded by the UK Energy Research Centre, which identifies the geographic location of existing reserves that should remain unused. It also sets out the regions that stand to lose most from achieving the 2°C goal.

The authors, whose work is published in Nature, show that the majority of coal reserves in China, Russia and the United States should remain unused along with over 260 thousand million barrels oil reserves in the Middle East, equivalent to all of the oil reserves held by Saudi Arabia. The Middle East should also leave over 60 per cent of its gas reserves in the ground, the researchers claim.

The development of resources in the Arctic and any increase in so-called unconventional oil are also found to be inconsistent with efforts to limit climate change.

According to UCL, the scientists embarked on the study by first developing a method for estimating the quantities, locations and nature of the world’s oil, gas and coal reserves and resources. They are then said to have used an integrated assessment model to explore which of these, along with low-carbon energy sources, should be used up to 2050 to meet the world’s energy needs. The model, which is claimed to use an internationally-recognised modelling framework, has multiple improvements on previous models, allowing it to provide a representation of the long-term production dynamics and resource potential of fossil fuels.