EUA shortfall predicted

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The latest report from carbon market analysts, IDEAcarbon, suggests that the economic downturn will cause a significant reduction in the shortfall of EU Allowances (EUAs).

The report estimates the shortfall in EUAs to drop by 44 per cent to 115m tonnes per year between 2008 and 2012 compared with 206m tonnes in 2007.

According to the report, the price implications of the recession are already in evidence with industrial companies selling surplus EUAs to raise short-term cash.

EUA prices have dropped from €29.33 (£23.5) to €17.40 in the last two months. However, IDEAcarbon believes that sales of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) may be held back by developers until prices are back up at high levels. The report estimates a short- to medium-term price floor of approximately €15.00.

Alessandro Vitelli, director of Strategy and Intelligence at IDEAcarbon, said: ‘Our latest forecasts suggest EU industrial output will grow at just one per cent in 2008, and shrink by 0.7 per cent in 2009. This will reduce the level of emissions from industry across Europe, and therefore cause a drop in the shortfall of credits available. After 2009 we predict output growth will revert to a positive trend.’