Flow formula

A mathematical framework for forecasting traffic flow on motorways to help manage congestion is being developed at

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and the Knowledge Transfer Network for Industrial Mathematics are partners in the project, which aims to create a system that can use real-time information to predict traffic jams.

The CBI says congestion costs UK businesses up to £20bn a year and road traffic is forecast to rise 30 per cent between 2000 and 2015.

'Congestion is here to stay and it's going to get worse,' said Dr Eddie Wilson, principal investigator. 'But we should at least give drivers some idea of how long their journey will take, by closing the gap between telling them what the speeds are at the moment and what the speed will be in a few hours time.'

'The big problem is stop-and-go patterns. You drive along and everything seems to be fine, then you grind to a halt for no apparent reason, before accelerating away. The resulting queues are like waves, which move upstream against the traffic flow, and this is why you don't usually see what caused them because it may be many kilometres downstream.