Mathematical tsunami

A new mathematical formula that could be used to give advance warning of where a tsunami is likely to hit and how destructive it will be has been developed by scientists at Newcastle University.

The research, led by Newcastle University’s Prof Robin Johnson, was prompted by the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami disaster, which devastated coastal communities in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand.

In that case, an earthquake in the depths of the ocean triggered a long surface wave that resulted in six massive wave fronts, one after the other.

Of these waves, it was the third and largest one that caused the most devastation, hitting the beaches with terrifying speed. Reaching a height of 20m, it was this wave that lifted a train from its tracks as it travelled along the Sri Lankan coastline, killing almost 1,000 people.

The new research shows that the number of peaks and troughs in the initial disturbance out at sea dictates the number of wave fronts that will steepen and eventually produce tsunami waves.