Study calculates chances of space debris entering busy airspace

The chance of space debris hitting an aircraft is very low, but the research from a team at the University of British Columbia (UBC) highlights that the potential for uncontrolled space debris to disrupt flights and create additional costs for airlines and passengers is not. The research is published in Scientific Reports.

In 2022, a re-entering 20-tonne piece of rocket prompted Spanish and French aviation authorities to close parts of their airspace. With rocket launches and flights increasing, UBC researchers said policymakers need to act.

“The recent explosion of a SpaceX Starship shortly after launch demonstrated the challenges of having to suddenly close airspace,” said first author Ewan Wright, an interdisciplinary studies doctoral student at UBC. “The authorities set up a ‘keep out’ zone for aircraft, many of which had to turn around or divert their flight path. And this was a situation where we had good information about where the rocket debris was likely to come down, which is not the case for uncontrolled debris re-entering the atmosphere from orbit.”