Vulnerable water resources could increase price of grid decarbonisation

According to a new study published in Nature Communications, changes in water availability caused by climate change could decrease hydropower generation by up to 23 per cent by 2050, while electricity demand could increase by two per cent. Both these phenomena would come together in summer to compound impacts on the grid.

To adapt to these impacts, the Western United States would need to build up to 139GW of power capacity between 2030 and 2050, which is said to be equivalent to nearly three times California’s peak power demand, or up to 13GW in transmission capacity during the same period. It is estimated that the total additional investment would cost up to $150bn. 

The study, supported by the US Department of Energy, was co-authored by a team of Canadian and US researchers, including at the University of California San Diego. 

In their study, the team accounted for the vulnerability of the Western United States to water-related climate change impacts, such as rising temperatures, changing patterns in rainfall and declining snowpack. They built simulations that link the region’s water and electricity systems. They then evaluated how the region could adapt to a range of potential climate change futures from 2030 to 2050, while still trying to transition to a grid powered by carbon-free energy sources.