Gartner predicts that by 2030, more than 50% of all vehicle models marketed by automakers will be EVs. Central to delivering on the EV opportunity is lithium-ion batteries. The need for Li-ion batteries is so great that the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects demand for lithium will increase 600% by 2040.
By 2040, worldwide lithium demand will reach 1.4 million tons annually in a net zero scenario, IEA estimates. The issue? All of the world’s current mines combined can’t meet that level of demand.
Automakers and regulators are counting on recycling - a capability at the heart of a circular economy, to reclaim lithium and other critical materials from used EV batteries, but doing so requires unpicking some key challenges.
The torturous lithium supply chain
Although the transition to EVs has barely begun, Europe already sources most of its lithium from Chile and China. Regardless of where it is mined, most lithium is then shipped to China, which controls 70% of EV battery production.
Redwood Materials, a US-based battery recycling company started by Tesla co-founder JB Straubel, calculates that all the shipping adds up to an unnecessary, expensive and carbon-intensive trip of 50,000 miles or more, and not just for lithium, but also for other critical materials, including cobalt and nickel. It’s a risk-packed supply chain vulnerable to geopolitical issues, pandemics and trade disputes.
Recycling lithium: a complementary solution
Which begs the question: What if the lithium supply chain disruption happens tomorrow?
Regulators’ answer: Recover the critical materials - including lithium, cobalt, nickel and copper – from used EV batteries by recycling them.
To eliminate those risks, both the US and EU are working to develop complete lithium-ion supply chains within their borders. In addition to existing mining, both regions are also developing their own lithium mines, but most won’t begin production for years.
EU regulations currently being phased into effect require battery manufacturers to create a circular lithium lifecycle by using a percentage of recycled lithium in new batteries. That percentage increases each year. Today, just 50% of battery raw materials are extracted through recycling, but science exists to raise this above 90%.
Battery passports will enhance recycling and reuse
Recycling batteries to create a circular lithium lifecycle holds enormous promise but it is no easy process. Battery materials, chemistries, and assembly methods vary widely, even among Li-ion batteries, and the recycling processes are equally diverse
To make recycling easier, the EU has mandated that all batteries must come with a “Battery Passport” - an electronic record of the materials and chemistries used in a battery, where materials were sourced, how and where the battery was manufactured, how it was used and how much useful life remains. Batteries from the first EV automobiles are just now reaching end of life and becoming available for reuse or recycling.
Battery passports: where to get the data?
EV battery passports are only as good as the data they contain, so where will automakers get the data? Much of it is already available in the software systems the companies use to design and build their cars. That data, and the ability to transfer it to a battery passport, will improve as battery sourcing and production moves closer to where EVs are manufactured.
To report on battery performance, life expectancies and state of health manufacturers will count on a combination of simulated and real-world data.
The use of Virtual Twins to model and simulate the physics and chemistry, combined with artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), can help automotive companies accurately predict the life of most cells in a battery pack, as well as optimise for other parameters such as performance, safety and sourcing. These companies have deep knowledge regarding the formulation of each of the material components in the battery cells, including actual test results and theoretical projections.
As new chemistries are proposed, simulation can help predict which ones will succeed and which ones should be abandoned, before companies make significant investments in developing them.
Circular value networks
The lifecycle of lithium showcases how recycling critical materials from EV batteries is possible.
Reusing Li-ion batteries from EVs for energy storage on the electrical grid, and recycling them to recover the high-value critical materials they contain, is not only good for the future of EV adoption, it’s also good for the planet.
While we make the transition to EVs and battery demand grows, the good news is that the race to ramp up lithium recovery and recycling is heating up.
Giacomo Margiotta-Mills is Transportation & Mobility Industry Director at Dassault Systèmes
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