Do you work in the UK engineering or manufacturing sectors? If so, when – if at all – do you expect a return to “business as usual” once Covid-19 lockdown restrictions are lifted?
MORE FROM THE ENGINEER ON INDUSTRY’S RESPONSE TO COVID-19
For 43 per cent of respondents to last week’s poll, it will be at least a year (12-18 months) before their business returns to pre-Covid levels. A more optimistic picture emerges for 36 per cent of respondents who believe 3-6 months is a realistic time frame.
Worryingly, 13 per cent don’t expect a return to business as usual. Of the remaining eight per cent, five per cent see a swift return to normality (within the next month) and three per cent have been unaffected by the Covid-19 pandemic.
In the comments that followed, Ekij said: “As a manufacturer of “critical importance” we’re still up and running. However with some changes. Most of the engineers are working from home. The shop floor are trying to maintain 2m social distancing. Orders are all over the place and the supply chain is “flaky” to say the least.”
“While I voted 12-18 months – as I think some kind of a new normality will have emerged by then – the repercussions will extend for many years beyond that,” added The Original Dave.
“The lock-down is very much time-limited, and won’t last longer than another month or two, so in that regards, we’ll be back to “normal” quite soon,” said Mohammed Abdullah. “It’s hard to say how the economy (UK and elsewhere) will be affected in the medium term, but I don’t for one second believe the wound is as deep as 2008.”
What do you think? Keep the conversation alive in Comments below. Please note that all comments are moderated.
Other.
As a manufacturer of “critical importance” we’re still up and running. However with some changes. Most of the engineers are working from home. The shop floor are trying to maintain 2m social distancing. Orders are all over the place and the supply chain is “flakey” to say the least.
I’m not exactly sure what you mean by “business as usual”. To some extent I think we won’t ever get back to the way things were. I expect more flexible working hours and more working from home to become the norm. But in terms of the shop floor still building product we’re trying as best we can for “My business has been unaffected by the crisis”
This chaos ‘should’ serve as a wake up call for UK Industry and a demonstration that reliance on the Government’s competence is a lost cause.
“Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it”, let’s hope not …
Other
>3 years
The Head of the IMF has said we are facing a global Depression, the worst since 1930’s USA. That crisis took 3 years to bottom out. Manufacturing is heavily correlated to consumerism and thus a healthy global economy.
I think it will take 12-18 months to achieve ‘business as new usual’. I don’t believe we’ll return to all the previous ways of working (nor should we), but I think it will take that time to lose the novelty of the way we’re working now, and to recover from the economic disruption.
There can never be normal again – Even when the contagion has subsided we’ll be in another stupid BrexShit battle and drowning in import-export paperwork – assuming there’s still any sort of market remaining for manufactured goods. Johnson (and his erstwhile chum Trump) should be sent to work in the fields and let industry recover while we are still in EU rules – and long may they continue.
If there had been a “2 to 5 years” I would have chosen that option and then caveated as some thing will permanently change, though over that timescale things would have in any event.
I hope that with all this time self isolating, people will be thinking up better ways of doing things and inventing new processes and things that can be put into action as soon as we are allowed back to work
My company is involved with telecom network infrastructure testing and as such is largely unaffected, so far. Everyone is still employed and the 5G rollout is continuing. We are still aiming to achieve our forecast, our supply chain is largely functioning, and our factory is able to output. A lucky sector to be involved in, some might say. The large majority of us are WFH and the factory and support staff attend as and when required. While I voted 12-18 months – as I think some kind of a new normality will have emerged by then – the repercussions will extend for many years beyond that. Even in these awful times, there are small positives, and if it makes us all rethink the way we work, rest and play, and to be more considerate to the environment and each other, that will be a good thing.
Whilst I voted for 12-18 months I hope it is sooner and suspect “something approaching to business as usual” to be 1st quarter 2021. The reason you have to say “something approaching” is there will almost certainly be a “new normal”. Change is scary but changes, maybe some of which are being enforced at the minute , will have to become part of that new normal.
Are you telling me that everyone has gone brain dead? If you love your skills and your business as I do then you will be testing the waters every day? I’m working on 3 new products that I hope will be great success.
Never had the time before…Mike
It takes a corona virus epidemic to make us forget that the world was facing a major financial crisis, which has not gone away. All the added borrowing of money to try and fix the corona virus epidemic only adds to the financial crisis, and has to be paid for by someone. Many believe that we are headed for a depression worse than the great depression of 1929, if that eventuates the job situation will be frightening, and it will not be business as usual for many years.
At the start of the lockdown, the money men warned that at week 8, even the sound firms will start to fail. HMG seems asleep. Neither Hancock or Raab seem to have a plan to end lockdown. I fear dither, drift & back covering, will keep lockdown longer than it needs to be. That could knockout 6 out of 10 firms. How are you going to bounce back quickly from that?
Yes, we must keep social distancing, hand cleaning, etc , but we must also start to reopen by week 7 at the latest. Ian Duncan Smith is the only senior Tory who seems to talk sense about having a plan to lift lockdown. Make him deputy PM to replace the out of his depth Raab. Sentences I never thought I would write.
Taiwan upped paper face mask production by ten million a day & has enough to offer ordinary Taiwanese a ration. The UK still has a paper industry. Why has the UK gov not asked it to switch to making face masks? Face masks are not perfect, but they are a sensible part of any strategy to lift lockdown.
I fear business as normal is at least a year away, but if HMG gets its head out of the sand, we could restart the economy before it collapses.
@ John Hartley
“Face masks are not perfect, but they are a sensible part of any strategy to lift lockdown.”
Masks are not recommended for the general public because:
1. they can be contaminated by other people’s coughs and sneezes, or when putting them on or removing them
2. frequent hand-washing and social distancing are more effective
3. they might offer a false sense of security
Paper face masks are as ineffective as a ‘nose-gay’ was against the Black Death.
the primary aim of the surgical mask is to prevent the wearer from infecting anyone else; and they offer little effective barrier to the wearer from contracting the virus.
Only N95, FFP3 or better masks ( coupled with sealed goggles) will protect you.
Then why are hundreds of millions of people worldwide wearing them? I suspect the real reason for being anti mask, is that the UK Government has abandoned UK manufacturing in favour of cheap Chinese imports. Now it can not get enough for the NHS, let alone anyone else, it has to use its black arts to denounce face masks, to cover up its failure to provide.
Of course masks are not perfect. They do not need to be. They just need to slow the spread to manageable levels.
The economic cost of lockdown cannot be ignored. 3.2 million workers paid by the state under the furlough scheme. Government deficit projected to hit £260 billion this year. NIESR predicting a five million rise in unemployment to 6 million in total. Analysts expecting a 35% fall in output from April to June.
We need someway to partially lift lockdown, before we bankrupt ourselves & go back to another decade+ of austerity. Masks, along with social distancing & hand washing, could be part of the solution.
The lock-down is very much time-limited, and won’t last longer than another month or two, so in that regards, we’ll be back to “normal” quite soon.
It’s hard to say how the economy (UK and elsewhere) will be affected in the medium term, but I don’t for one second believe the wound is as deep as 2008.
>There can never be normal again – Even when the contagion has subsided we’ll be in another stupid Brexit battle and drowning in import-export paperwork – assuming there’s still any sort of market remaining for manufactured goods. Johnson (and his erstwhile chum Trump) should be sent to work in the fields and let industry recover while we are still in EU rules – and long may they continue.<
So true. The UK cannot withstand Brexit's minus 8% GDP on top of this
Face masks are not recommended because there aren’t enough single use ones available for the NHS, let alone the general public. They may not be foolproof effective but are better than nothing.