Editor
If you’re paid less than £30,000 a year then it might be time to start looking nervously over your shoulder, because according to a new report out this week you could soon be replaced by a robot.
The research, carried out by Deloitte and the university of Oxford, warns that one in three existing UK jobs are at risk of replacement by technology in the next 20 years.
The report claims that low paid repetitive jobs are most at risk, whilst higher skilled workers are least likely to feel the cold metallic tap of a robot finger on their shoulders any time soon. It also warns that unless businesses start planning now, growing levels of automation could lead to mass unemployment and a widening gap between rich and poor.
Interestingly, in London, where salaries are higher, the risk is slightly lower. And whilst few would deny that there’s something rather appealing about replacing the capital’s much maligned bankers with intelligent automatons programmed to behave ethically at all times, the kind of high salaried jobs found in the city are, says the report, relatively safe. You’ll be relieved to learn that jobs in the far nobler engineering and science sectors are also considered low risk.
Throughout the national press, there’s been a predictably hysterical, even apocalyptic, reaction to the research (and who can blame them? We all enjoy a good “robots taking over the world” story right?).
But whilst there are legitimate concerns here, and there’s little doubt that rising levels of automation will render more and more human roles redundant, is the report telling us anything we didn’t know already? And should we really be concerned?
Since the dawn of automation people have voiced fears that the robots will do us all out of a job, and whilst it’s certainly true that manufacturing, for instance – which has enjoyed the benefits of automation perhaps more than any industry – employs fewer people than it once did, it is also more profitable and productive and offers better salaries than it used to. Indeed, in a robot free society there might be more jobs, but they’ll be dirty, dangerous and poorly paid.
We have little choice but to continue to embrace the rise of automation and make sure that we use it as an opportunity, not to reduce our labour costs, but to free up our workforce to develop the skills and expertise that will help the UK compete with the best around the world.
Providing businesses work hard now to anticipate the impact of technological progress on the labour market we really have nothing to fear from the rise of the machines.
Jon Excell is away. This blog piece was generated by Journobot 2000.
All this goes to show that we need a completely new and different economic and monetary system. There are plenty to choose from on the internet. They can hardly be worse than the present mess which seems to exist to make sure the rich get richer at the expense of the rest of us.
Nothing to fear from the loss of low paid, low skilled jobs away from the capital because by the time it happens HS2 will be able to speed the unemplyed from the midlands into London 30 minutes quicker.
A reason why repetitive jobs can be repetitive is because on the periphery of the repetitive process there are lots of people absorbing complexity from the process environment, and keeping the internal environment nice and stable. Those are the jobs where resilience and situation awareness are prime requirements, and why those jobs are so hard to replace. As we go through the sequences of change necessary to deliver a sustainable world, including a ‘circular economy’, more jobs will be created to replace those lost, but the need for resilience will undoubtedly grow. There’s going to be a big necessity in retraining people to fit these new roles, but given this, the situation isn’t as bleak as the news media might be portraying.
It is the inevitable progress. Machines have been replacing human labour through the ages, a most significant example being the industrial revolution spanning the 18th/19th century. Automation, computers and robots is simply the 20th/21st century version of the “revolution”. Unexpected? Surely not, as the article rightly suggests.
The usual ‘hysteria’ that we heard when computers were introduced in the 1970’s – exactly the same arguments applied. All it did was increased productivity and competitiveness. We have a record number of people in work announced this week than ever before. If we didn’t automate where would we be. If the UK remained today on typewriters while everyone else adopted computers we would be out of business. Again the same argument applies to automation – Automate or die!!
I dunno, these robots coming over here and taking our jobs 😉 They’ll be taking over the Eastern European Car Wash sector soon with automatic car washes…. Oh, hang on
Introduction of robots should be regarded as a way of bringing work back to the UK as there would be no cost advantage in sending work abroad. In addition, we would be creating more high quality maintenance jobs here.
But we need to put more investment into robot design and manufacture in the UK.
In aerospace automation represents a great opportunity.
Compared to say automotive, the production rates are very low so many parts are still hand-made, yet there is a crossover where investment in such capital equipment outweighs the costs of continuing with human labour.
Once that point has been crossed, there is no significant divergence in cost between a factory located in the UK or a low cost labour state such as Indonesia. The effect of which is to keep factories close to where the components are required (namely here!) in order to reduce transport costs. Therefore we can compete in the global market for low-mid cost/skill production as well as continue our lead in the high end.
As the Aerospace strategy is largely to decrease costs by increasing productivity (consider A320 & 737 rates), jobs are being displaced rather than lost. As the robotic equipment needs operating/supervising, maintaining, calibrating, programming, designing, assembling, shipping, etc, the roles of the people employed in such factories is transitioning from semi-skilled to skilled. Then the products being manufactured will need packing, testing, marketing, selling, cleaning, maintaining, shipping etc.
Also, consider my first point about the trade off between capital costs and human labour. In every factory, there will always be tasks in the chain for which it makes little economic sense to replace humans. We might not be as good at repetitive tasks, but we have incredible dexterity and versatility, and to boot we can be ‘programmed’ far more efficiently than any robotic system thanks to our power of abstraction. It seems that a good schooling will leave future employees well placed to take advantage of the robotic economy.
As my job definitely cannot be done by a robot, this only shows that my salary is too low. Time to tell our customers to pay up!
I think the part of research and development will increasing according the evolution of Embedded System, Robotics , etc. And that needs manpower, a lot of money and business to achieved the desired technology also you can say that the competition will increased. So I do not think it will reduced the jobs. Also, usually any machine in the world need maintains and operations so new line of businesses will start of course with qualifications or trained people.
So…has John Excel already lost to Journobot 2000??!!
not mentioned here is Internet of THings(IoT).
sensor input transducer output connected mini computers deployed all over the world.
the old way of doing things have isolated sensor farms that push information to the so called ‘big data’ enterprise for consumption. however, the longer that data sits there, the lower the business value is on that data.
IoT is slated to hit all industries, and just like everything else in life, both good and bad no doubt.
if folks are going to survive in the new world economy, they have to roll with the times and get up to speed on these technologies so they can have jobs as they come in. i am making my first IoT projects right now. i am mounting my battery powered, wifi connected device to my hat, so as i go into a starbucks or other free hotspot , the webcam will turn on, various sensor readings taken up to that point off line are pushed to the cloud and gps locator will show my current position.
this is just for experimentation at this point, but preparing for real world practical implementations that can indeed help save lives.
cheers.
Ron Harding
Concord, CA
USA
In the late 70’s there was much the same debate and we set our face against automation.
There was in fact an excellent “Tomorrows World Special” about the impact of automated factories.
While it’s undoubtedly true that the advent of low cost general purpose automation is no surprise it would be wrong to say we have seen this before. Whereas the industrial revolution was about replacing labour with mechanical muscle this one is replacing it with mechanical minds.
The best example being transportation. Only in the last 3-4 years has it become practical to completely replace a driver with a low cost autonomous system. And since a automatic driver unlike a single purpose production line can be used in any situation that the hardware (a lorry) is capable of then it’s application can be much more wide ranging than factory automation ever was.
CGP Grey made a nice video that discussed these themes and why mechanical minds are different from the mechanical muscles were used to. http://youtu.be/7Pq-S557XQU
How many of you noticed that the article was written by a robot.
I’ll bet you’re worried now!
Here’s a little exercise for those who believe they have strategic thinking within their skills.
Dividing the 24-hour day into say 30 minute ‘slots’- make a list of what you as a human being use within each ‘slot’.
As an example: presumably from 00.01 until about 0630 you will be asleep so you are using a bed (but you can add sheets, duvets, etc) only.
Then as your day starts -razor (for gentlemen!) toaster, clothes, other cooking facilities…you get the idea,
Then travel to place of employment…
Items used at work (PC, office equipment, machine, eating facilities, Internet (data exchange) and so on
and at some point some form of entertainment, exercise, sport, social interaction, before you head back to bed.
Do the same as above, but this time, use the weeks and months and years of your life: notice the changes that the seasons of the year, and the ‘seven’ ages of our lives influence.
It is illuminating to recognise those aspects (and equipment) over which we have control/choice and those which are imposed upon us: and in my view there are differences in the likely influences of change -real, imaginary, beneficial and malign, which robotics will offer.
Answers on a post-card by quill pen?
best
Mike B
We should only fear the rise of ignorance. This article however leads to other questions such as will the government allow free education for people from disadvantaged families? Will education finally be a priority for all? As we evolve and our society changes, will we all embrace these changes? Also, such robots will need to be fixed/maintained – so perhaps we shouldn’t panic just yet.
“…but to free up our workforce to develop the skills and expertise that will help the UK compete with the best around the world.”
This seems to suggest that our unskilled workers are waiting in anticipation, just itching for a chance to improve themselves – surely motivated individuals would have done this already? As an ex-teacher I can say that indigenous individuals who do not achieve academic success, for whatever reason, are likely to languish in unskilled jobs (where available) or turn to social security. If more skilled workers are needed they may come from the EU, either already qualified or motivated to gain qualifications.