The Scottish chief executive of UK manufacturers’ association EEF claims that independence could turn Scotland into an economic wasteland.
By the end of this week, the shape of the UK could be almost irrevocably altered. And as the battle to persuade voters in Scotland to say “yes” or “no” enters its final, perhaps most critical stage, the independence debate will dominate this week’s headlines.
Over the course of the past few weeks The Engineer has considered the potential impact of a “yes” vote on the UK’s industrial landscape. And whilst it’s impossible to predict with certainty what might happen, it’s clear that many leading industrialists and business people are deeply concerned about the implications of the UK breaking up.
Perhaps the most strongly worded warning yet, however, has come from EEF chief executive, Terry Scuoler, who has today claimed that independence would be a political and economic disaster for Scotland.
Urging Scots to vote no, Scuoler, a Glaswegian, said that a vote for independence could lead to Scotland becoming an economic wasteland, greatly diminishing the standing of both Scotland and the rest of the UK and seriously damaging the long-term economic and social prospects of the nation.
He warned that young people would be especially hard hit by a diminished economy in Scotland and that pensioners would see the value of their investments decline, with a weak rate of exchange in a future Scottish currency undermining their spending power.
‘People need to wake up to the enormity of the decision they are facing and the potential nightmare scenario were the yes campaign to succeed,’ said Scuoler. ‘The yes campaign has sold a vision of a prosperous future. But it is an illusion, and a dangerous one at that. The reality is there would be deeply damaging implications for the economy and the living standards of ordinary Scots for decades to come’
Scuoler’s concerns echo similar comments already made by prominent members of the business and scientific research communities. Late last month, over 130 business leaders with operation in Scotland put their names to a letter published in the Scotsman newspaper, warning that uncertainty over currency, regulation, tax, pensions, EU membership and support for exports could hamper the growth of the Scottish economy at a time of record investment and high employment rates.
Signatories to the letter included Keith Cochrane, chief executive of Weir Group (one of Scotland’s largest engineering firms); Archie Bethel, who heads up Babcock international’s marine division; the executive vice president of BG Group Sir John Grant and the chief executives of Thales UK, Aggreko, and BHP Billiton. The chief executive of BP, Bob Dudley, has also warned that a breakup of the UK could create uncertainty that would be offputting to investors in the North Sea oil industry.
Meanwhile, a number of senior academics and scientific researchers have expressed fears that a “yes” vote could lead to cuts in academic research in Scotland – which receives a higher proportion of UK research council spending than the country’s share of population – and trigger an exodus of Scotland’s most talented scientists.
However, hundreds of other business leaders and academics including the founder of the Stagecoach transport firm, Sir Brian Souter, and founder of energy industry services company Enermech, Doug Duguid, have come out in favour of independence. The Scottish government is also proposing a new common research area that maintains the existing UK-wide funding councils.
A first past the post senario is just not good enough for a vote of this importance. As it stands Scotland is divided, a few percentage points dividing the parties. A more realistic assesment of the voting would be 70% or more for independence.
What is the point of destroying a very successful Union only to replace it with a divided populace. There will not be any EU money to bail them out of trouble.
I’m English, if I where Scottish I would be voting for independence.
Hopefully the rest of the regions in the UK will get a vote on devolution in the years to come.
We are all fed up of the westminster bubble!!!
Take note Westminster, people in the Uk outside London are sick to the back teeth of being on the wrong of the Watford gap, independence for Cumbria, Northumberland the Midlands where will it stop. Treat ALL the people of the UK as one and that will stop this argument dead in its track,
When you say wasteland, are we talking about South Sudan, Argentina, Spain, the UK in it’s current form, or a special category of wasteland not yet seen where the government all but collapses and once we have eaten our pets there will be no food to be had at all?
Where exactly on the scale of ecconomic wastelands do you see us ending up?
I assume it will even be an even worse wasteland than the one the UK will be left in if it decides to leave the EU in the next referendum?
Or maybe you should consider reining in the four horsemen a bit.
Which ever way it goes almost as many people will have wanted the opposite. Not a good recipe for peace and quiet is it?
The Scot’s are voting to buy a pig in a poke. It is a little bit like agreeing to buy a car without knowing the make, model or price of the car that Alex Salmond is trying to sell them.
If they vote out then they should know that for every slightly racist Nat who wants the English to “F off back tae England” there are 9 slightly racist English people who wont be buying anything from their new country.
Here’s hoping the haters don’t win.
Having been born in Scotland but working down south of England I would like to have returned but if voted yes it won’t happen why weren’t people like me given a vote it’s my country too?
Having spent many hours reading through the EU treaties and rules it has become abundantly clear that Salmon & co are being very economical with the truth or even outright dishonest with their claims about automatic EU membership and also keeping the Pound as their currency.
This farce has already cost the UK as a whole billions of pounds in loss of stock valuations and could very well destroy all that Scotland has achieved due to lack of investor confidence and a dramatic plunge in its market value. A very dishonest “yes” campaign followed by an inept “No” response. We all loose except the politicians involved
Yes obvious disaster for Scotland and UK but Salmon ego trip and inept/ incompetent Cameron (& Darling last effort) have made it much closer than it should be. Also why Salmon allowed to change voting for his benefit i.e. no one working abroad allowed to vote + 16-18 yrs allowed?
There are also chances.
Yorkshire could declare independence from London and incorporation into Scotland. Later the Midlands, until London is just a financial and legal city with 5 airports to import any fresh produce.
Scottish People are being misled by a YES argument which is based on emotion.
i.e. The Flower of Scotland mentality rather than valid arguments.
A YES vote will weaken this country. Its a good job Hitler is not attacking these islands this time.
Alex Salmond quoted recently, as an example, a price per barrel of $100 that would generate billions of Pounds for an independent Scotland. What was not mentioned was the volatility of the oil price. During the mid nineteen-eighties the price of oil fell to around $10 per barrel resulting in large scale redundancies in the oil industry and house prices to crash in and around Aberdeen. This had a knock on effect in other sectors of employment.
All this referendum has done is divided a nation and is likely to take years to get over as whoever loses will be disgruntled. In view of the latter, first past the post is not good enough for such an important issue. As Stephen Bunch in an earlier post said, 70% would be a better cut-off point for the winner. Those who are undecided or in favour of a ‘Yes’ vote should consider the financial implications of a separate Scotland in terms of dearer mortgages, dearer living costs, increased taxation and loss of jobs and security of pensions. We are in danger of moving towards the abyss. I am Scottish and British and wish to remain so.
Hang on whats all this? ‘The Scottish government is also proposing a new common research area that maintains the existing UK-wide funding councils’ So they don’t want to be part of the UK but they will still take the UK’s funding!! wanting their cake and eat it springs to mind.
Alex Salmond and his henchwoman Nicola Sturgeon are snake-oil salespeople of the first water; their talent for obfuscation knows no bounds. Truth is often described as the first casuality of war and when confronted with truth they cry foul, scaremongering and government conspiracy to all who have the misfortune to listen. However it’s not too late; Scotland can still pull back from the brink of economic disaster by voting “NO” on Thursday. Let’s hope they see sense and decide to remain part of the UK. The union has lasted for 307 years and I cannot believe that any sensible voter really wants everlasting change at any price…!
I really don’t know why folk assume that the people of Greater London have any more faith in the UK government that they do in ‘other regions’. If you think London gets a better deal, try living there! (After 60 odd years, I’m exceedingly glad I moved away.) You really don’t appreciate what you’ve got until you lose it. The Scots will find this out if they vote for independance. Salmond et al. are living in cloud-cuckoo land.
Selling a dream has always been easier than finding positive arguments for the status quo. You can point out what Scotland would lose by leaving the Union, but there is no Braveheart emotional vision to sell for the Union.
The question should never have allowed the answer “Yes” to be for independence because those campaigning for a No vote are promoting a negative from the start. A better more neutral question would be “Do you want Scotland to remain part of the United Kingdom or be independent”, with the answers “Remain in the United Kingdom” or “Be independent”.
I agree with most of the previous comments that the Scottish people are being sold a false Nirvana, and will find the reality very different if they actually get independence.
The ‘Yes’ gang constantly rail against the ‘tory government that they didn’t vote for’ (completely missing the point of democracy).
I assume therefore, as nobody voted for this obscene waste of taxpayers money on the altar of Salmond’s ego, that the SNP will refund the referendum costs if the vote goes against them…
So it’s comes down to this, Salmond is determined to make a name for himself and go down in history as the New William Wallis, well enjoy the moment Salmond because from tomorrow if you get your way it’s all downhill and you will definitely be remembered for a long time as the man who single handedly divided Scotland from the UK and started the demise – enjoy.
On R4 this morning, farmers were being canvassed about whether being independant will effect their sales to the remaining UK. The ‘yes’ camp opinion was it wont effect sales as their product is so good. Well this is one English man who will boycott all Scottish goods (given the choice) if independence is achieved. Petty?, yes, but that is my choice.
If Scotland achieves independence, then isurely technically they are no longer UK citizens, and as they are not EU members either would have no right of residency surely (as too for Brits living in Scotland). I would also think, under the same rules, any Scottish students at UK universities would have to pay full international student rates?
Scotland may not actually own the Oil and Gas reserves in the North Sea in the event of a Yes vote and separation.
The bulk of these reserves are a long way outside their territorial waters and additionally there may be other claims to be made against these properties.
These claims relate to the Orkney Islands and who owns them. The Orkneys were pledged in Lieu of a Dowry for Margaret Daughter of the King of Norway for her marriage to King James III of Scotland. A dowry that was never paid. Conceivably the Norwegians no longer worried about British naval power might want to pay the Dowry and reclaim their security. It would be a bargain for sure.
Secondly the Orkneys are now owned by the Crown estate.
The UK Government does not own The Crown Estate. Instead it is managed by an independent organisation – established by statute – headed by a Board (also known as The Crown Estate Commissioners), and the surplus revenue from the estate is paid each year to the Treasury for the benefit of all UK taxpayers.
Conceivably a pro-rata division of the property of the crown estate would be the right approach to a fair agreement on separation. This may mean that IScot would have entitlement to only a small proportion of the Oil and Gas in the North Sea.
In either case IScot would not have the naval power to defend such interests.