What is the most likely outcome of the current situation regarding Brexit?
They say a week is a long time in politics, and in these tumultuous times, the old adage has never felt truer. Last week we asked readers what they felt was the most likely outcome of the Brexit impasse. At the time, prime minister Theresa May had just pulled the meaningful vote on her Brexit withdrawal agreement. Since then, May has survived a vote of ‘no confidence’ from her own party, had her attempts at renegotiation shot down in Brussels, set aside a week for the meaningful vote in the new year, and may now be on the cusp of a ‘no confidence’ motion raised from the opposition benches.
But for all the political posturing and jockeying of the past week, nothing has really changed. May’s red lines are still clashing with reality, no one likes her deal, and the EU is standing firm. Unless the PM can rally support for her beleaguered agreement – something that seems highly unlikely given the divisive nature of the ‘backstop’ – her deal will be voted down. This will bring us closer to the cliff-edge of ‘no deal’, but will also undoubtedly increase the chances that the UK remains in the EU.
The cold facts of the situation have been reflected by our readers, with ‘Remain in the EU’ and ‘Leave without a deal’ claiming the vast bulk of responses. Precisely 40 per cent believe remaining within the bloc is now the most likely outcome, closely followed by 32 per cent who feel the UK will exit with no deal on March 29th. Total respondents numbered 1,193, giving a sample size more statistically relevant than many of our Tuesday polls.
Of the other runners and riders, ‘Leaving with a renegotiated deal’ was the next most popular choice, gathering 12 per cent. ‘None of the above’ and ‘a deal under a newly elected government’ polled six per cent each. The least popular option – a new deal under a new Conservative government – saw just four per cent of the vote, reflecting perhaps that May was always likely to win the Tory ‘no confidence’ vote in her leadership last week.
As with everything Brexity, the comments have been full-blooded on both sides. We have left the comments section open and invite readers to continue the debate, but remind everyone to keep it civil and not wander off-topic. Please familiarise yourself with our guidelines for comments content before submitting.